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Posts Tagged ‘Warren Buffet’

Step 1: Pick the right company!

In the beginning of 2009 I finally realised that the continuous devaluation of fiat currencies like the US Dollar and the Euro was likely to go on the coming years. Both in the USA and in Europe money is being printed at alarming rates, yet the only thing you’re hearing lately is that we are all doing so well! Well, don’t believe it! All that money being printed has to go somewhere, and there you have your equity bull-market explained. I realised that true value could only be stored in silver and gold.  How could I benefit from the enormous gold and silver bull-market that I was expecting. The largest leverage to gold and silver prices is always found in junior mining stock. I am a big admirer of Warren Buffet and believe in value investment. Using value investment principles and after months of research and reading piles of year-reports and books, I finally picked six companies.  With all my saving money transferred to a on-line broker I bought shares of six companies.

Step 2: Take your profit, and gain “free” stock.

With prices of gold and silver soaring in 2010 just like I expected, many shares in my portfolio were exceeding 250% gains. So I sold about 40%-50% of all my shares in these companies getting back even more than the original investment. The remaining shares in these companies were now basically “free” shares. Since large corrections in gold and silver prices are likely each time after another record is shattered, I just waited for this correction, and used the money to GO BACK TO STEP 1!!! So far I picked five new companies to invest in, and am looking for one more to complete my second round of step 1. With prices of gold and silver prices rising for years to come I hope to repeat step-1 and step-2 many times. I now have created what I call step-3 companies.

Step 3: Wait, wait, wait

As you might have noticed I only sold about half the shares of the companies I picked. All the companies I picked mainly have developed from explorers to producers. I intend to NEVER SELL the shares I own. There might always be a exception in special circumstances however. Where will these companies be in 10, 20 or even 25 years from now. I strongly believe that all companies will continue to develop, mergers take overs etc. who knows…. But with governments making the same mistakes over and over again, the way up for gold and silver still is very long. In the years to come the new Goldcorp, Barrick or Rio Tinto will present its-self and I am certain that parts of my portfolio will be or be part of that company. It is very likely that companies in the portfolio will start paying dividends at a certain point (e.g. 5-15 years)

These step-3 companies are my retirement, my protection against inflation!

Can you prove this?

Well, step-1 and step-2 have been proven already. Step-3 only partially.

How did you do so far then?

Bought in 2009:

International Royalty Company: Got lucky on that one, made a 101% profit in a take-over battle just months after buying it. Sold all shares.

Avino Silver & Gold mines: bought @ US$0.63 : sold 40% of my shares @ US$2,57 (a 307% gain) creating a step-3 company for my portfolio.

First Majestic: bought @ CA$2.66 : sold 45% of my shares @ CA$10.88 (a 309% gain) creating a step-3 company for my portfolio.

Great Panther: bought @ CA$0.84 : sold 50% of my shares @ CA$2.75 (a 227% gain) creating a step-3 company for my portfolio.

Minera Andes: bought @ CA$0.72: sold of my shares @ CA$2.56 (a 255% gain) creating a step-3 company for my portfolio.

Silver Wheaton: bought @ US$9,95 and a second step-1 for Silver Wheaton @US14,95 in 2010. I sold 50% of all my Silver Wheaton shares @US$39.07 creating a step-3 company for my portfolio.

Bought in 2010:

Seabridge Gold: bought @ US$28.36 is still a step-1 company! We think it might take up to 3 or 4 years to reach step-2 but if investors discover the true value of this company it might come much sooner as well!

Rubicon Minerals: bought @ CA$3.49 today the stock closed @ CA$5.49 meaning a 57.3% gain. In between step-1 and step-2.

Copper Creek Gold (Highly Speculative!!): bought @ CA$0.075 today the stock closed @ CA$0.09 meaning a 20% gain. Still step-1, but highly speculative!

Excellon Recources: bought @ CA$0.99 today the stock closed @ CA$1.18 meaning a 19% gain. Still a step-1 company!

Brigus Gold: bought @ US$1.88 today the stock closed @ US$1.77 meaning a 5,9% loss. Very much a step-1 company!

What do I expect in 2011?

More volatility is likely to rule the commodity markets. Food prices will soar, the oil price will rise gradually as will the price of copper. For a gold rally we will have to wait till August again, then I see a spot price of about $1600-$1700 before the end of this year. Silver will outperform gold again in 2011. I expect the price of silver to be less volatile than the price of gold. When the gold rally in August commences again, silver will shoot up like a star! During the year I think the gold/silver ratio will decline gradually as a result of this. At the end of 2011 I expect the gold/silver ratio to be below 35. IF this happens, I will be able add some step-3 companies to my portfolio from the 2010 stock picks, and use the money at the next correction to buy new step-1 companies.

Alexander Aardema, CEO @ CashInfo.org

Disclaimer:

The information provided on or within this article, website or in documents available herein is for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not be taken alone as the basis for an investment decision. Each recipient of this information should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities offered hereby, and should consult its own legal counsel and financial, accounting, regulatory and tax advisors to determine the consequences of such an investment.

You can now view interactive charts from 24hgold.com on this website! This will keep you in touch with just a few mining stocks, which have been carefully selected. Just visit our: portfolio

Watch Great Panther (TSX:GPR)

We are a shareholder of this company for almost a year now. Great Panther is primary silver producer. We knew this company was a solid buy, and you can still buy into this company at about the same price as in September 2009. Please read the year report of 2009 via this link The report confirmed to us that Great Panther will gain much value the coming years. Despite the fact that the price of silver has gone up quite a lot, the price of this stock hasn’t, that just means there is only more upward potential in share value.

How does CashInfo.org select great investments

CashInfo.org only buys stock with the principals of value investment in mind. We are a big fan of Warren Buffet, one of the richest persons in the world and a true value investor. And remember that Warren Buffet has bought a lot of silver in 1997 at $ 4,96 per ounce, and he holds on to it. This also means that once we bought into our carefully selected companies we intend to hold them for as long as possible. Only when a stock is massively overvalued we might be tempted to sell. Otherwise, we hold on to them for many years to come! We read every quarter/year report there is in the companies we own and the companies we follow.

The new Selection

Starting four months ago with started with 39 companies on our list, after hard labour we narrowed the list down to a 4 company short-list. We will probably buy stock this coming week, the moment we do we will reveal the name of the lucky company at once. The gold price has become quite predictable this summer, I say we reach a new all time high on Monday, than within 48 hours selling pressure (and price manipulation) will cause a sharp decline back to the $1230 range. This will be the moment we buy.

Going short

It’s tempting to consider other trading instruments with this volatile market. When you go short whenever, or a near all-time high is reached you provide a hedge for your mining stock, and since it it most likely to go down again after each upward spike it might be fun to experiment a bit. So last week we bought a sprinter Gold Short of the ING bank in the Netherlands noted on the EuroNext options exchange in Amsterdam, there are many leverage products alike this one offered by other banks in other countries, please read their information thorough since the product might differ. Sprinters are leveraged products that allow investors to benefit from accelerated returns generated by the price movements of their underlying value. Sprinters are available across asset classes and ING commits to offer Sprinters on a broad range of underlying values. In addition to attractive spreads, ING strives to consistently provide an excellent level of service to its clients.  Buying June 18 @ € 6,30 and selling June 24 @ € 8,33 hope I can try this trick again this week.

Absolutely bullish on gold and silver!
The gold price is over the $ 1000 mark (again) and while I’m writing this post we are experiencing a very large upward spike!
I think that gold will rise further till at least the end of the year, than it should have reached the   $ 1080 /1090 mark.
Than two things can happen: 1. a drop back to the $ 1000 mark again or 2. a price explosion, where gold can easily go to $ 1500 or even $ 2000
Silver is being highly undervalued, today the gold/silver ratio is about 70, before 2008 the ratio was in the 40-50 range. Historically the ratio is about 16, and that number makes much more sense than the ratio’s we see nowadays.

There is about 16 times as much silver in the ground as there is gold. Then why did we loose this ratio? This can be explained by silver loosing its monetary status to gold in the 19th century.  During the 1970′s the value of silver was once again proven because the inflation was very high. The price went from a few dollars to $ 50 per ounce. If we correct that price to inflation, silver should cost $ 150 per ounce today! It should be noted that there was an attempt to corner the silver market by the Hunt brothers which caused the price to sky-rocket. The plan failed on Thursday 27 March 1980, this day became known as Silver Thursday. Also the leverage of the silver price to gold had a very negative effect during the 1980′s. In 1992 silver hit a historical low of $ 4,73 per ounce. Not long after that Warren Buffett bought a large quantity of silver. You can find some interesting charts here.

Many investors have considered the industrial aspects of silver as negative. What they forget though, is that silver is being consumed, and gold isn’t. Every year new applications for silver are being discovered. For instance, there is probably silver in the screen you are looking at right now!

The money presses are running wild in both the US and in Europe. Normally money is created by central banks in order to keep track with economic growth. We can’t really say the economy has seen much growth lately. Inflation is inevitable, so the chances of silver prices going berserk again is very plausible. Have a look at a very nice chart I found. The chart shows the silver price over a period of 600 years, corrected by inflation and the gold/silver ratio. (chart from 1998)

Click to enlarge